which increased sentences reduce or might reduce crime rates. First, much
crime, at least according to popular wisdom (and there is probably scientific
grounding for this) is committed by people who have already committed one
or more crimes. Therefore, increased jail time flowing from increased
sentences keeps some of the crime prone section of the population off the
streets, that is, out of harm’s way, for a longer time. This is labelled
incapacitation. Second, harsher sentences provide would be criminals with a
reason not to commit crime. This is labelled deterrence.
Roe v Wade
The major cause of the decline in the crime rate was not established beyond
doubt but seemed to be the decision of the United States Supreme Court in
1973 in the famous case of Roe v Wade.
417
Yet, until Levitt conducted his
research, this had not even been broached as a possible cause of the decline in
the crime rate.
Roe v Wade made abortion legal throughout the United States as a
constitutional right.
418
Up until this case abortion had been legally prohibited in
all but five states. In consequence of Roe v Wade, the abortion rate rose
considerably. There were approximately 750,000 abortions in 1974 and 1.6
million by 1980. Prior to Roe v Wade educated middle and upper class women
could often obtain an abortion by collusion with a willing doctor who could, if
needs be, pass the procedure off as something else. Consequently, the group
who would take most advantage of Roe v Wade
consisted of women who
were in one or more of three categories -
teenagers, unmarried or poor.
Children of these women were the ones most likely to end up as blue collar
criminals. Thus, following the Supreme Court decision the women most likely
to breed criminals were now aborting them.
419
This example illustrates the point, that the same social change may have two or
more separate and independent causes. A decline in the crime rate came partly
from an increase in the length of incarceration and partly from an increase in
the abortion rate. It also illustrates another significant point - that the cause of a
___________________
417
Roe v Wade 410 US 113 (1973)
418
Roe v Wade 410 US 113 (1973)
419
Just to show how explanation for social change can come from superficially
irrelevant sources there is another contributing explanation for a decline in the
murder rate in the United States. In the 1990s trauma physician became a new
speciality in American medicine. The effect of this was that more people who
were critically injured were saved. This produced a decline in the homicide rate,
which was completely independent of any decline in the rate of potentially
homicidal assaults.
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