for the term ‘effect’, second, effects typically occur as a chain or a cluster,
and third, there is no earthly limit to the nature and scope of effects.
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Outline
Discussion of causation in this chapter takes place in five stages. First, we
consider the concept of determinism,
which underlies causation. Next the
chapter considers the nature of science and its capacity to deliver laws that
describe and enable us to predict human behaviour. This includes an
examination of some general theories of behavioural science to illustrate that
overall it is still not an exact science. This means that it is not presently
possible to devise a comprehensive theory of law making because it is not
possible to say with reasonable certainty the effects that laws will cause.
Fourth, accepting that prediction of causation is uncertain, we consider some
of the empirical work done on the effects of laws from which there are
tentative but not universal conclusions about what law will and will not do.
Fifth, and finally, since predicting causation is an uncertain task, we consider
how to accommodate this uncertainty.
Determinism
Introduction
There are two competing views about human behaviour, voluntarism and
determinism. Voluntarism says that humans have free will and therefore have
choices as to how they behave. Determinism says that humans do not have
free will; instead their behaviour is caused or determined. Clearly the concept
of causation takes a deterministic view of how things happen.
Voluntarism
[L]ead us not into temptation.
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Voluntarism accords humans free will. Consequently, humans have choices as
to how they behave. They can choose to do something or not to do it.
Because of this, people are morally responsible in that they can properly be
held accountable for their behaviour.
Determinism
Here I stand. I can do no other. God help me.
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Determinism asserts that human behaviour is caused or determined so that
there are no choices. On the extreme view of determinism, for every event
there is a chain of causation going back to the beginning of time.
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Chapter 10 Policy
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The Lord's Prayer
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Martin Luther, speech at the Diet of Worms, 18 April 1521. In the original
German he said: “Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders. Gott helfe mir”. There is a
popular view that Luther made this statement, but there is no direct evidence of it.
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