Illustrative Cases
Some decided cases have invoked classical probability.
616
Two illustrations
will be given here -
Tenax Steamship Co v The Brimnes
617
and People v
Collins.
618
The Brimnes Case
Classical probability was used in the case of Tenax Steamship Co v The
Brimnes.
619
In Tenax
there were two relevant events, giving notice and
payment of money, and the issue was which had occurred first. Notice was
given in a 30 minute period between 18.00 and 18.30 and payment was made
in a 60 minute period between 17.37 and 18.37. There was no direct evidence
as to when either event happened within the possible periods. There was also
no indirect evidence suggesting that any one particular time was more likely
than any other.
Given this the court relied upon classical probability. It assumed that the two
events, giving notice and payment of money, were equally likely to have
happened at any time within the designated periods.
Calculation of the probability that notice was given before payment was made
involved two preliminary steps:
(1)
For payment to occur before the notice, both payment and notice had
to be in the period of overlap, that is, 17.37 to 18.00. This is a period of 23
minutes. Reasoning for this proposition goes as follows. (i) The period for
payment begins at the start of the period of overlap. Before this time there can
be no payment so payment cannot be before the notice. (ii) The period for
notice expires at the end of the period of overlap. After that time notice cannot
have been given, so in this case also payment cannot be made before the
notice. (iii) It follows that for payment to be before notice both notice and
payment must be in the 23 minute period between 18.37 and 18.00.
(2)
In half the cases where notice and payment
occur in the 23 minute
period of overlap notice will be before payment; in the other half notice will be
after payment.
616
Two examples, Tenax v Steamship Co v The Brimnes [1975] QB 929 and People
v Collins, 438 P.2d 33 (Cal. 1968) are discussed below. For other cases using
classical probability see Rose v Orchard Investments [87] Aust Torts Reports ¶80-121
and Rogers v Whitaker
(1992) 109 ALR 625 where the probability of an operation
failing was 1 in 14,000.
617
Tenax v Steamship Co v The Brimnes [1975] QB 929
618
People v Collins, 438 P.2d 33 (Cal. 1968)
619
Tenax v Steamship Co v The Brimnes [1975] QB 929
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