Chapter 23
Probability of Truth: Specific Facts
Introduction
1. Cognitive Science
2. Induction
Individual Behaviour
General Behaviour
Legal Rules
3. Deduction
4. Combination of Methods
“Absence of evidence" Donald Rumsfield memorably declared, is not
"evidence of absence”.
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Introduction
Step 2 Probability of Truth: Stage 1
This chapter discusses Stage 1 in Step 2 of the model for proving facts. Step
2 involves a court determining the probability that each version
of the facts
presented to it is true. This is part of the process of determining whether the
party who initiated proceedings has made out their case to a sufficient degree
of probability, standard of truth, or standard of proof (as lawyers call it).
Stage 1 of Step 2 is where the court assesses the probability that specific parts
of the facts are true. Stage 2, which is discussed in the next chapter, involves
the court assessing the probability that the overall versions of the facts put by
each party are true. These overall versions are made up of specific facts.
There are several methods of proving facts, as has been previously
discussed.
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In practice some of these methods rarely if ever yield any
difficulty. Difficulties generally occur in three situations, which are discussed in
this chapter - observation of facts by a witness using one or more of their five
senses, induction and deduction.
1. Cognitive Science
Introduction
The veracity of evidence from a witness of their observation depends on the
accuracy of their observation, the correctness of their memory, their freedom
from bias and their willingness to tell the truth (as they believe it to be). These
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Tony Horwitz "Distracting lies muddy the ground before the missiles start
flying" The Sydney Morning Herald 6 March 2003 p 15
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Chapter 21 Model for Proving Facts
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